Cross-basin and cross-taxa patterns of marine community tropicalization and deborealization in warming European seas.

Ocean warming and acidification, decreases in dissolved oxygen concentrations, and changes in primary production are causing an unprecedented global redistribution of marine life. The identification of underlying ecological processes underpinning marine species turnover, particularly the prevalence of increases of warm-water species or declines of cold-water species, has been recently debated in the context of ocean warming. Here, we track changes in the mean thermal affinity of marine communities across European seas by calculating the Community Temperature Index for 65 biodiversity time series collected over four decades and containing 1,817 species from different communities (zooplankton, coastal benthos, pelagic and demersal invertebrates and fish). We show that most communities and sites have clearly responded to ongoing ocean warming via abundance increases of warm-water species (tropicalization, 54%) and decreases of cold-water species (deborealization, 18%). Tropicalization dominated Atlantic sites compared to semi-enclosed basins such as the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas, probably due to physical barrier constraints to connectivity and species colonization. Semi-enclosed basins appeared to be particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, experiencing the fastest rates of warming and biodiversity loss through deborealization.

Variation in the levels of anisakid infection in the European anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus (Linnaeus) from the Bay of Biscay during the period 2000-2023 (ICES Subarea 8).

The European anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus is one of the most important commercial species in the Bay of Biscay (ICES Subarea 8), and our analysis focused on the analysis of the temporal mean abundance, prevalence, and intensity of Anisakis spp. larvae species in anchovies from ICES Subarea 8 in the years 2000, 2001, 2014-2016, and 2019-2023. Prevalence in adult individuals of anchovy was only 1% in 2000 but increased to 90% in 2014. Since 2015, the prevalence has decreased, and the number of individuals affected in 2023 accounted for 17.6%. The mean abundance showed a similar trend, with a peak of 3.79 nematodes/anchovy in 2014, falling to 0.21 in 2023. The species A. simplex sensu stricto and A. pegreffii were identified by PCR/SANGER sequencing and PCR/RLFP techniques in 2019 and 2020. Anisakis simplex (s.s.) was the most abundant species and, according to the results returned by these two techniques, it accounted for an average of 62.4% and 52.1% of total nematodes in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The results of studies monitoring infection levels in anchovies showed that the mean abundance and prevalence changed over the course of the study period and that the proportion of different species of Anisakis is also subject to variation from year to year.

Global mesozooplankton communities show lower connectivity in deep oceanic layers.

Mesozooplankton is a key component of the ocean, regulating global processes such as the carbon pump, and ensuring energy transfer from lower to higher trophic levels. Yet, knowledge on mesozooplankton diversity, distribution and connectivity at global scale is still fragmented. To fill this gap, we applied DNA metabarcoding to mesozooplankton samples collected during the Malaspina-2010 circumnavigation expedition across the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans from the surface to bathypelagic depths. We highlight the still scarce knowledge on global mesozooplankton diversity and identify the Indian Ocean and the deep sea as the oceanic regions with the highest proportion of hidden diversity. We report no consistent alpha-diversity patterns for mesozooplankton at a global scale, neither across vertical nor horizontal gradients. However, beta-diversity analysis suggests horizontal and vertical structuring of mesozooplankton communities mostly attributed to turnover and reveals an increase in mesozooplankton beta-diversity with depth, indicating reduced connectivity at deeper layers. Additionally, we identify a water mass type-mediated structuring of mesozooplankton bathypelagic communities instead of an oceanic basin-mediated as observed at upper layers. This suggests limited dispersal at deep ocean layers, most likely due to weaker currents and lower mixing of water mass types, thus reinforcing the importance of oceanic currents and barriers to dispersal in shaping global plankton communities.

Shrinking body size of European anchovy in the Bay of Biscay.

Decreased body size is often cited as a major response to ocean warming. Available evidence, however, questions the actual emergence of shrinking trends and the prevalence of temperature-driven changes in size over alternative drivers. In marine fish, changes in food availability or fluctuations in abundance, including those due to size-selective fishing, provide compelling mechanisms to explain changes in body size. Here, based on three decades of scientific survey data (1990-2021), we report a decline in the average body size-length and weight-of anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus L., in the Bay of Biscay. Shrinking was evident in all age classes, from juveniles to adults. Allometric adjustment indicated slightly more pronounced declines in weight than in total length, which is consistent with a change toward a slender body shape. Trends in adult weight were nonlinear, with rates accelerating to an average decline of up to 25% decade-1 during the last two decades. We found a strong association between higher anchovy abundance and reduced juvenile size. The effect of density dependence was less clear later in life, and temperature became the best predictor of declines in adult size. Theoretical analyses based on a strategic model further suggested that observed patterns are consistent with a simultaneous, opposing effect of rising temperatures on accelerating early growth and decreasing adult size as predicted by the temperature-size rule. Macroecological assessment of ecogeographical-Bergmann's and James'-rules in anchovy size suggested that the observed decline largely exceeds intraspecific variation and might be the result of selection. Limitations inherent in the observational nature of the study recommend caution and a continued assessment and exploration of alternative drivers. Additional evidence of a climate-driven regime shift in the region suggests, however, that shrinking anchovy sizes may signal a long-lasting change in the structure and functioning of the Bay of Biscay ecosystem.

Analysis of potential drivers of spatial and temporal changes in anisakid larvae infection levels in European hake, Merluccius merluccius (L.), from the North-East Atlantic fishing grounds.

We analysed the spatial and temporal variability of Anisakis larvae infection in hake (Merluccius merluccius) from the North-East Atlantic from 1998 to 2020 and the potential drivers (i.e., environmental and host abundance) of such variation. The results showed that hake from separate sea areas in the North Atlantic have marked differences in temporal abundance levels. Hake larger than 60 cm were all parasitized in all ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) subareas 6, 7, and 8. The belly flaps were the most parasitized parts of the flesh, accounting for 92% of the total. Individuals of Anisakis simplex, Anisakis pegreffii, Anisakis spp. and a hybrid of Anisakis simplex × pegreffii were genetically identified, and Anisakis simplex as the most abundant (88-100%). An ecological niche model of Anisakis occurrence in fishes in the NE Atlantic was built to define the thermal optimum and environmental ranges for salinity, depth, chlorophyll concentration, and diffuse attenuation. The temporal variability of anisakid infection in fishes in the last two decades indicated an increase in the NE Atlantic at an annual rate of 31.7 nematodes per total number of specimens examined per year. This rise in infection levels could be triggered by the increase in intermediate host fish stocks, especially hake in the area.

Climate regime shifts and biodiversity redistribution in the Bay of Biscay.

Global ocean warming, wave extreme events, and accelerating sea-level rise are challenges that coastal communities must address to anticipate damages in coming decades. The objective of this study is to undertake a time-series analysis of climate change (CC) indicators within the Bay of Biscay, including the Basque coast. We used an integrated and flexible methodology, based on Generalized Additive Mixed Models, to detect trends on 19 indicators (including marine physics, chemistry, atmosphere, hydrology, geomorphology, biodiversity, and commercial species). The results of 87 long-term time series analysed (~512,000 observations), in the last four decades, indicate four groups of climate regime shifts: 1) A gradual shift associated with CC starting in the 1980s, with a warming of the sea surface down to 100 m depth in the bay (0.10-0.25 °C per decade), increase in air temperature and insolation. This warming may have impacted on benthic community redistribution in the Basque coast, favouring warm-water species relative to cold-water species. Weight at age for anchovy and sardine decreased in the last two decades. 2) Deepening of the winter mixed layer depth in the south-eastern bay that probably led to increases in nutrients, surface oxygen, and chlorophyll concentration. Current increases on chlorophyll and zooplankton (i.e., copepods) biomass are contrary to those expected under CC scenarios in the region. 3) Sea-level rise (1.5-3.5 cm per decade since 1990s), associated with CC. 4) Increase of extreme wave height events of 16.8 cm per decade in the south-eastern bay, probably related to stormy conditions in the last decade, with impacts on beach erosion. Estimating accurate rates of sea warming, sea-level rise, extreme events, and foreseeing the future pathways of marine productivity, are key to define the best adaptation measures to minimize negative CC impacts in the region.

Pan-regional marine benthic cryptobiome biodiversity patterns revealed by metabarcoding Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures.

Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS) have been applied worldwide to characterize the critical yet frequently overlooked biodiversity patterns of marine benthic organisms. In order to disentangle the relevance of environmental factors in benthic patterns, here, through standardized metabarcoding protocols, we analyse sessile and mobile (<2 mm) organisms collected using ARMS deployed across six regions with different environmental conditions (3 sites × 3 replicates per region): Baltic, Western Mediterranean, Adriatic, Black and Red Seas, and the Bay of Biscay. A total of 27,473 Amplicon Sequence Variants (ASVs) were observed ranging from 1,404 in the Black Sea to 9,958 in the Red Sea. No ASVs were shared among all regions. The highest number of shared ASVs was between the Western Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea (116) and Bay of Biscay (115). Relatively high numbers of ASVs (103), mostly associated with the genus Amphibalanus, were also shared between the lower salinity seas (Baltic and Black Seas). We found that compositional differences in spatial patterns of rocky-shore benthos are determined slightly more by dispersal limitation than environmental filtering. Dispersal limitation was similar between sessile and mobile groups, while the sessile group had a larger environmental niche breadth than the mobile group. Further, our study can provide a foundation for future evaluations of biodiversity patterns in the cryptobiome, which can contribute up to 70% of the local biodiversity.

Forever young: The successful story of a marine biotic index.

In 2000, the AZTI's Marine Biotic Index (AMBI) was published and was one of a number of marine benthic indices development to assess the ecological status of soft-bottom macroinvertebrates. This index, and its derivatives, has been very successful in its application to different geographical areas, across the world, as well as to different environments, from the intertidal to the abyssal, or from tidal freshwater to offshore habitats. In this review, we explain the story behind the AMBI development, and look for an explanation of the index's success. For doing that, we comment on the current practicalities of the index, we present the new AMBI species list, with 9251 taxa, we dismantle six myths around this index, and examine the past and the future of the index. We show that the solid ecological roots of the index make it a robust tool to assess the status of marine benthic communities, at any time and environment. Hence, we think that it will be 'forever young' helping managers in taking informed decisions to improve benthic marine systems.

Large-scale distribution of tuna species in a warming ocean.

Tuna are globally distributed species of major commercial importance and some tuna species are a major source of protein in many countries. Tuna are characterized by dynamic distribution patterns that respond to climate variability and long-term change. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental conditions on the worldwide distribution and relative abundance of six tuna species between 1958 and 2004 and estimated the expected end-of-the-century changes based on a high-greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5). We created species distribution models using a long-term Japanese longline fishery dataset and two-step generalized additive models. Over the historical period, suitable habitats shifted poleward for 20 out of 22 tuna stocks, based on their gravity centre (GC) and/or one of their distribution limits. On average, tuna habitat distribution limits have shifted poleward 6.5 km per decade in the northern hemisphere and 5.5 km per decade in the southern hemisphere. Larger tuna distribution shifts and changes in abundance are expected in the future, especially by the end-of-the-century (2080-2099). Temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin, and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward. In contrast, skipjack and yellowfin tunas are projected to become more abundant in tropical areas as well as in most coastal countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZ). These results provide global information on the potential effects of climate change in tuna populations and can assist countries seeking to minimize these effects via adaptive management.

Large-scale ocean connectivity and planktonic body size.

Global patterns of planktonic diversity are mainly determined by the dispersal of propagules with ocean currents. However, the role that abundance and body size play in determining spatial patterns of diversity remains unclear. Here we analyse spatial community structure - ß-diversity - for several planktonic and nektonic organisms from prokaryotes to small mesopelagic fishes collected during the Malaspina 2010 Expedition. ß-diversity was compared to surface ocean transit times derived from a global circulation model, revealing a significant negative relationship that is stronger than environmental differences. Estimated dispersal scales for different groups show a negative correlation with body size, where less abundant large-bodied communities have significantly shorter dispersal scales and larger species spatial turnover rates than more abundant small-bodied plankton. Our results confirm that the dispersal scale of planktonic and micro-nektonic organisms is determined by local abundance, which scales with body size, ultimately setting global spatial patterns of diversity.

Functional redundancy and sensitivity of fish assemblages in European rivers, lakes and estuarine ecosystems.

The impact of species loss on ecosystems functioning depends on the amount of trait similarity between species, i.e. functional redundancy, but it is also influenced by the order in which species are lost. Here we investigated redundancy and sensitivity patterns across fish assemblages in lakes, rivers and estuaries. Several scenarios of species extinction were simulated to determine whether the loss of vulnerable species (with high propensity of extinction when facing threats) causes a greater functional alteration than random extinction. Our results indicate that the functional redundancy tended to increase with species richness in lakes and rivers, but not in estuaries. We demonstrated that i) in the three systems, some combinations of functional traits are supported by non-redundant species, ii) rare species in rivers and estuaries support singular functions not shared by dominant species, iii) the loss of vulnerable species can induce greater functional alteration in rivers than in lakes and estuaries. Overall, the functional structure of fish assemblages in rivers is weakly buffered against species extinction because vulnerable species support singular functions. More specifically, a hotspot of functional sensitivity was highlighted in the Iberian Peninsula, which emphasizes the usefulness of quantitative criteria to determine conservation priorities.

Climate oscillations reflected within the microbiome of Arabian Sea sediments.

Selection of microorganisms in marine sediment is shaped by energy-yielding electron acceptors for respiration that are depleted in vertical succession. However, some taxa have been reported to reflect past depositional conditions suggesting they have experienced weak selection after burial. In sediments underlying the Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), we performed the first metagenomic profiling of sedimentary DNA at centennial-scale resolution in the context of a multi-proxy paleoclimate reconstruction. While vertical distributions of sulfate reducing bacteria and methanogens indicate energy-based selection typical of anoxic marine sediments, 5-15% of taxa per sample exhibit depth-independent stratigraphies indicative of paleoenvironmental selection over relatively short geological timescales. Despite being vertically separated, indicator taxa deposited under OMZ conditions were more similar to one another than those deposited in bioturbated intervals under intervening higher oxygen. The genomic potential for denitrification also correlated with palaeo-OMZ proxies, independent of sediment depth and available nitrate and nitrite. However, metagenomes revealed mixed acid and Entner-Dourdoroff fermentation pathways encoded by many of the same denitrifier groups. Fermentation thus may explain the subsistence of these facultatively anaerobic microbes whose stratigraphy follows changing paleoceanographic conditions. At least for certain taxa, our analysis provides evidence of their paleoenvironmental selection over the last glacial-interglacial cycle.

Dispersal similarly shapes both population genetics and community patterns in the marine realm.

Dispersal plays a key role to connect populations and, if limited, is one of the main processes to maintain and generate regional biodiversity. According to neutral theories of molecular evolution and biodiversity, dispersal limitation of propagules and population stochasticity are integral to shaping both genetic and community structure. We conducted a parallel analysis of biological connectivity at genetic and community levels in marine groups with different dispersal traits. We compiled large data sets of population genetic structure (98 benthic macroinvertebrate and 35 planktonic species) and biogeographic data (2193 benthic macroinvertebrate and 734 planktonic species). We estimated dispersal distances from population genetic data (i.e., FST vs. geographic distance) and from ß-diversity at the community level. Dispersal distances ranked the biological groups in the same order at both genetic and community levels, as predicted by organism dispersal ability and seascape connectivity: macrozoobenthic species without dispersing larvae, followed by macrozoobenthic species with dispersing larvae and plankton (phyto- and zooplankton). This ranking order is associated with constraints to the movement of macrozoobenthos within the seabed compared with the pelagic habitat. We showed that dispersal limitation similarly determines the connectivity degree of communities and populations, supporting the predictions of neutral theories in marine biodiversity patterns.

'The past is the future of the present': Learning from long-time series of marine monitoring.

Using a long-term (1995-2014) monitoring network, from 51 sampling stations in estuaries and coasts of the Basque Country (Bay of Biscay), the objective of this investigation was to assess the responsiveness of 83 variables in water (18), sediments (27), biota (26), phytoplankton (2), macroinvertebrates (5) and fishes (5) to different human pressures and management actions. We used a total of 3247 series of data to analyse trends of improvement and worsening in quality. In a high percentage of the cases, the management actions taken have resulted in positive effects in the environment, as shown by the trend analysis in this investigation. Overall, much more trends of improvement than of worsening have been observed; this is true for almost all the media and biological components studied, with the exception of phytoplankton; and it applies as well to almost all the stations and water bodies, with the exception of those corresponding to areas with water treatment pending of accomplishment. In estuaries with decreasing human pressures during the period, the percentage of series showing quality improvement was higher (approx. 30%) than those showing worsening of quality (12%). Moreover, in those water bodies showing an increase of pressure, variables which can be considered indicators of anthropogenic effects showed negative trends (quality worsening). On the other hand, some of the variables analysed were more affected by natural variability than by changes in pressures. That was the case of silicate, nitrate and suspended solids, which followed trends correlated to salinity, which, in turn, was related to the rainfall regime during the study period.

Restoring fish ecological quality in estuaries: Implication of interactive and cumulative effects among anthropogenic stressors.

Estuaries are subjected to multiple anthropogenic stressors, which have additive, antagonistic or synergistic effects. Current challenges include the use of large databases of biological monitoring surveys (e.g. the European Water Framework Directive) to help environmental managers prioritizing restoration measures. This study investigated the impact of nine stressor categories on the fish ecological status derived from 90 estuaries of the North East Atlantic countries. We used a random forest model to: 1) detect the dominant stressors and their non-linear effects; 2) evaluate the ecological benefits expected from reducing pressure from stressors; and 3) investigate the interactions among stressors. Results showed that largest restoration benefits were expected when mitigating water pollution and oxygen depletion. Non-additive effects represented half of pairwise interactions among stressors, and antagonisms were the most common. Dredged sediments, flow changes and oxygen depletion were predominantly implicated in non-additive interactions, whereas the remainder stressors often showed additive impacts. The prevalence of interactive impacts reflects a complex scenario for estuaries management; hence, we proposed a step-by-step restoration scheme focusing on the mitigation of stressors providing the maximum of restoration benefits under a multi-stress context.

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean.

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.

Setting the maximum ecological potential of benthic communities, to assess ecological status, in heavily morphologically-modified estuarine water bodies.

Investigations on setting benthic macroinvertebrates reference conditions in natural waters have increased recently. Under the European Water Framework Directive, importance is given to research in morphological heavily-modified water bodies (HMWBs), which are very common in countries with high human pressure. However, research has not been undertaken on setting the maximum ecological potential (MEP), as a reference in HMWB. The objective of the present investigation is to set the MEP of two metrics (diversity and richness), used in assessing the ecological status in different benthic indices. The Oiartzun estuary (Basque Country) is used as a case study, which changed morphologically in the 19th Century, following harbour construction. Data obtained from 1874 and the present were used to model changes in currents, water residence time, salinity, volume, and intertidal area. Benthic macroinvertebrate data, from 1995 to 2011, were used to predict 19th Century and present MEP. Changes in the estuary were described: loss of all of the intertidal areas; doubling of the volume; residence time, changing from 2 to 95 days; current velocity reduced by 50%; salinity increase. All these factors have led to changes in the benthic communities and the structural variables. Predicted richness and diversity, for 1874, were lower (48-76%) than those at present. Taking into account the differences between natural and modified waters, it is proposed to utilize 75% of the natural reference conditions, as the MEP values for Basque HMWB.